Europe charts own course on Iran with Washington as outlier over nuclear deal
At the same time, Europe readied measures to keep the deal on track despite the U.S. uncertainty.
European diplomats have started a wide-ranging effort to lobby U.S. lawmakers in recent weeks on the assumption that Congress will be the main battleground over the future of U.S. participation in the two-year-old deal between Iran and six world powers. The pact limits Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting international sanctions.
But even if lawmakers ultimately choose to preserve the agreement, Europeans warned that U.S. credibility had already been dealt a significant blow. That could harm attempts to address both Iran and North Korea, which has threatened to strike the United States with nuclear weapons.
“Keeping faith to an agreement is absolutely fundamental in international diplomacy. And this is exactly what the president is putting into question,” said Norbert Roettgen, the chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament and a top ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Germany is one of the parties to the deal.
Not backing the agreement, he said, “would have a disastrous consequence with regard to the Middle East. Perhaps a nuclear race would be ignited. It would drive a real wedge into international relations between the U.S. and Europe. And it would make North Korea even more complicated because the credibility of the United States would suffer.”
Europe — long Washington’s most important partner in global security and diplomacy — was already reeling from Trump’s decision to pull out from the Paris Climate accord, another ambitious international agreement negotiated by the Obama-era White House.
But many European leaders view any damage to the Iran deal as far graver for global security, since it could exacerbate nuclear crises in both the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula.
The nuclear agreement, signed in 2015, was the result of years of painstaking negotiations and President Obama and considered a highlight of his diplomatic legacy.
But skeptics in Congress imposed a requirement that the U.S. president recertify every 90 days that Iran is in compliance and that the deal remains in Washington’s national security interest. Trump has already recertified the deal twice, but he has said it was terrible for the United States, viewing it as a legacy of weak bargaining by Obama.
European diplomats said that they shared U.S. concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile program and its aggressive behavior in its region, and that they welcomed negotiations that would change Tehran’s course.
They said that Trump’s expected decertification of the deal would harm efforts to address those additional issues, not help them, by damaging trust that the White House would hold to any international agreement.
“This is a real problem in terms of giving the cushion that Europeans need to actually collaborate as partners with the United States on other aspects of Iranian behavior that they in Europe also find problematic,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, summing up views from several European countries.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, which is charged with inspecting Iran’s nuclear program on the ground, has said that Iran is fully in compliance. Iran has centrifuges that can produce enriched uranium for power and research reactors, but has not pushed the program to levels to make weapons-grade material. Iran has repeated insisted it does not seek nuclear arms.
The agreement “takes away the risk of a nuclear arms race in the region,” said a senior E.U. official, briefing journalists in Brussels under ground rules of anonymity. “All the other issues of concern that may come up will not be better served if we take away the agreement.”
European leaders have said it would be impossible to renegotiate the agreement, which took 12 years to reach.
If the deal falls apart, that would merely strengthen Iran’s position on the world stage, French President Emmanuel Macron said last month in an interview with a group of reporters in New York.