Turkey’s Democratic Opposition Tests Cracks in Erdogan’s Iron Grip on Voters

 In U.S.

ISTANBUL — When President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called early elections two months ago, he seemed assured of victory. But as Sunday’s vote approaches, the man who has transformed Turkey over 15 years in power appears increasingly vulnerable.

The question will be, just how vulnerable is he?

The vote will be watched far beyond Turkey’s borders for what it will decide about the direction this country of 80 million — whether it continues down the path of populist authoritarianism with Mr. Erdogan, or takes a turn for democratic change.

A skillful politician with a fervent support base, Mr. Erdogan still leads in the polls. But dissatisfaction over a sudden downturn in the economy is spreading. So is alarm over Mr. Erdogan’s increasing authoritarianism, which, if he wins, will be given even freer rein under a newly strengthened presidency.

“A strong Turkey needs a strong leader,” Mr. Erdogan bellowed to the crowd of several hundred thousand in his final Istanbul campaign rally last Sunday. “May God let us continue on this path by becoming more powerful.”

If 7 to 8 percent of formerly loyal voters abandon the president’s Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., the governing party will lose, said Ozer Sencar, who runs the independent Metropoll polling agency.

There are already signs of defections, Mr. Sencar said, noting that some of them had voted against Mr. Erdogan in last year’s referendum to expand the powers of the presidency, which passed only narrowly.

“This is the group that will determine the fate of the election,” he said.

Most of the group are conservative Islamists among the Kurds who are disappointed that Mr. Erdogan failed to keep his promise to make peace with Kurdish separatists, Mr. Sencar said.

Four opposition parties — the Republican People’s Party, the Good Party, the Felicity Party and the tiny Peoples’ Democratic Party — have formed an alliance to maximize their assault against Mr. Erdogan.

But the state of emergency Mr. Erdogan snapped in place almost two years ago after a failed coup has allowed the government to tilt the playing field greatly in its favor.

Mr. Erdogan has used the extra powers to jail political opponents, including nine Kurdish members of Parliament and dozens of Kurdish party officials, as well as 70,000 students and activists and tens of thousands of members of the military and public employees. Demonstrations are banned, and access to national television is tightly controlled.

The Kurdish candidate, Selahattin Demirtas, has campaigned from prison, where he is being held while he awaits trial on terrorism charges. He relies on a team of lawyers to relay his messages on social media. And last week he was permitted to record a single campaign speech inside prison that was aired on the state-run Turkish Radio and Television, or T.R.T.

Over the past six weeks, Mr. Erdogan has enjoyed 181 hours of national television airtime, while Mr. Ince was allowed 15 hours, Ms. Aksener three hours and the rest one hour or less, according to the Supreme Board of Radio and Television.

It is Mr. Ince who has been Mr. Erdogan’s main target, smeared by “fake news” campaigns by government supporters. But he has parried the attacks with humor and a hopeful message and has started drawing crowds to match those of Mr. Erdogan.

Yet there is no doubt that Mr. Erdogan’s persona has dominated the campaign. His campaign posters are the largest and most numerous. His rallies are broadcast live on virtually every television channel. And his voice is heard everywhere.

He also controls all the levers of power, rules by decree under a state of emergency and can count on a tame judiciary and presidential guard.

The Republican People’s Party, which has a long tradition of secularism, has added several Islamists to its party list to build an Islamist alternative to Mr. Erdogan’s A.K.P.

One of the co-founders of the A.K.P. with Mr. Erdogan, a former deputy prime minister, Abdullatif Sener, is running for Parliament on the Republican People’s Party list in the conservative city of Konya.

He stunned villagers during meetings in a farming district with strident criticism of Mr. Erdogan, the likes of which is never heard in the mainstream media.

“If you cannot buy food and clothes for yourself, it means the economy is not growing,” he told them, disputing government claims of 7 percent growth.

He accused Mr. Erdogan of neglecting Turkey’s agriculture to make money on deals importing foodstuffs.

“You want to farm your land but this government made us completely dependent on imports,” he said. “All they think of is ransacking the country.”

A shopkeeper in the village of Cayhan told Mr. Sener that villagers were too scared to tell the truth but that almost all were going to switch their support away from Mr. Erdogan.

“Something is going to happen,” said Bulent Ecevit Tatlidil, a member of the executive bureau of the Republican People’s Party who is from the farming district.

Outrage over a sudden paucity of onions has even hit the main television news. Ms. Aksener accused Mr. Erdogan of treason for his neglect of agriculture.

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